Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the United States to set out a “victory plan” to his closest ally this week, in an urgent attempt to influence White House policy on Ukraine’s war with Russia no matter who wins the U.S. elections in November.
The Ukrainian leader has said he wants to present the plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during the trip, which will see Zelenskyy addressing the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
Zelenskyy has said that if the plan is backed by the West, it will have a broad impact on Moscow, including a psychological one that could help compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war diplomatically.
“The victory plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners — from now until the end of December,” Zelenskyy told reporters on Friday.
He added that the plan would act as a “bridge” to a second Ukraine-led summit on peace that Kyiv wants to hold and invite Russia to later this year.
There is no alternative to peace, Zelenskyy has said, “no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage.”
Yet the two sides remain far apart.
Zelenskyy wants Ukraine inside NATO and the European Union and Russia driven from all Ukrainian territory, although he says the latter aim can be achieved diplomatically. Putin says peace talks can only begin if Kyiv abandons swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and drops its NATO membership plan.
Zelenskyy’s trip comes at a perilous juncture for Ukraine. A Trump victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election could prompt a reset of Washington’s policy on Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. military and financial support.
During a TV debate, Trump refused to say if he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia and said he would try to end the war before taking office if he wins. Harris accused Trump of seeking Kyiv’s swift and unconditional capitulation.
U.S. eager to discuss plan
As the election nears, Kyiv has put on a show of strength, rapidly seizing land in a high-risk Aug. 6 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, touting new weapons including a “drone missile” and ballistic weapon and launching major drone strikes.
One attack caused a massive blast at an ammo dump in Russia’s Tver region last Wednesday.
Russia has ramped up drone and missile attacks, taken receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles, according to the West, ordered an increase in the size of its army, moved to change its nuclear doctrine and stepped up its eastern offensive.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said Biden is eager to discuss Zelenskyy’s “comprehensive strategy for success in this war” against Russia.
Zelenskyy said his plan consists of a small number of points and that “all these points depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s.”
On Friday, the leader said the steps involved establishing Ukraine’s place in the world’s “security architecture,” battlefield decisions including the Kursk operation, bolstering Ukraine’s armoury and supporting the economy.
‘A pivotal moment’
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said Zelenskyy might press for longer-term assurances of aid into 2025 and seek some kind of declaration of post-Biden continuity in support.
“This will be a very important moment. Perhaps in some ways, in a political and military-political sense, it will be a pivotal moment,” he said.
Zelenskyy is almost certain to repeat his call on Biden to authorize long-range strikes into Russia, a move Moscow has said would make NATO members direct participants in the war and elicit a response.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, saying NATO risks ‘war’ if they cross this red line. Andrew Rasiulis, a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, joins Canada Tonight to break down Putin’s warning.
Ukraine wants to strike military installations up to 300 kilometres inside Russia, such as airfields that host attack helicopters and warplanes used to fire glide bombs. Washington has said it does not see the easing of those restrictions as a battlefield game-changer.
Russia, which occupies 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory, has been on the offensive since last October and in August chalked up its fastest sustained recent month of advances.
Ukraine’s toehold in Russia’s Kursk region could serve as a bargaining chip at talks or as an insurance policy against any outside push to freeze the war along current lines. But Kyiv would have to hold the territory amid serious manpower challenges against a much larger foe.
Meanwhile, Russia has been making progress toward the transport hub of Pokrovsk. Its capture could wreak havoc with Ukrainian logistics and open up new lines of attack.
Kovalenko said Russia likely wanted to capture Pokrovsk by the year-end.
“That would allow them … to strengthen pressure on the information front to catalyze thoughts of peace negotiations, naturally on their terms,” he said.
