Expected Goals isn’t a new tool to measure the quality of a goalscoring opportunity but WhoScored.com have sought to take the stat to the next level. Not only is xG now available on WhoScored.com, they have made it so users can sort by over and underperformance of a player’s xG in their respective league.
Here, they run through an XI of players who are overperforming their xG. These are the players who have scored more than their Expected Goals in the Premier League this season.
Goalkeeper: N/A
Nick Pope is the only goalkeeper to have a shot in the Premier League this season, and even that resulted in an xG of 0.04. Having failed to score, Pope is underperforming his xG by 0.04, so this team doesn’t have a keeper.
Centre-back: Cristian Romero (Tottenham)
Following his strike in the win over Crystal Palace, no defender has scored more goals than Cristian Romero (four) in the Premier League this season. However, the difficulty of the Argentinian’s chances means he is overperforming his xG (2.02) by 1.98, a better return than any other defender in England’s top tier.
Centre-back: Thiago Silva (Chelsea)
Thiago Silva may struggle to reclaim his place in Chelsea’s team now he’s returned from injury but the Brazilian is a goal threat for the Blues. The experienced centre-back has two goals from an xG of 0.4, an overperformance of 1.60.
Centre-back: Marcos Senesi (Bournemouth)
Bournemouth will hope Marcos Senesi’s hamstring injury sustained at Burnley at the weekend isn’t too severe. Not only is the Argentinian impressing for Andoni Iraola’s Cherries but the centre-back is returning an xG overperformance of 1.94, meaning he should – by this metric – have only one goal rather than three.
Central midfield: Declan Rice (Arsenal)
Declan Rice has been a revelation for Arsenal following his arrival from West Ham last summer. Signed to shore up the Gunners’ midfield, Rice has also added a goal threat. He’s already scored five league goals for Mikel Arteta’s side, his best haul in a season, but his xG is just 2.07, with Rice overperforming it by 2.93.
Central midfield: Mathias Jensen (Brentford)
Joining Rice at the base of the midfield , Mathias Jensen has overperformed his xG by 2.54. Jensen has three league goals this season but according to his Expected Goals total, the 28-year-old should have failed to hit the back of the net.
Right wing: Leon Bailey (Aston Villa)
One of Aston Villa’s stars of late, Leon Bailey is finding his feet at Villa Park following a difficult start to life in England. Bailey has eight goals and eight assists, this despite registering just 1,343 minutes of action. The Jamaican’s goals have come from an xG of 4.61, with an overperformance of 3.39, the third-highest in the league.
Attacking midfield: Mohammed Kudus (West Ham)
One of the signings of the season, Mohammed Kudus has thrived in the Premier League after signing from Ajax. While he took some time to establish himself as a first team regular under David Moyes, the Ghana internationalhas become one of the first names on the team sheet. Kudus features in this XI having returned an Expected Goals overperformance of 2.70, with the winger netting almost double the amount of goals his xG (3.30) would suggest.
Attacking midfield: Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)
Similarly, Bernardo Silva, like Kudus, has six league goals to his name, but his xG overperformance of 2.75 means he should, in theory, having just three to his name. The Portuguese international is proving another driving force in Manchester City’s title charge.
Left wing: Son Heung-Min (Tottenham)
A return of 13 league goals is the sixth best return in the Premier League this season with Son Heung-Min shouldering the scoring burden after Harry Kane’s exit. However, by WhoScored.com’s Expected Goals method, Son should have just eight league goals. With a knack for the spectacular, the South Korean star is overperforming his xG by 4.76: the biggest positive difference in the Premier League.
Striker: Jarrod Bowen (West Ham)
Another West Ham player leads the charge. Jarrod Bowen has netted 14 goals in the Premier League this season but an xG 10.43 means his overperformance is 3.57, second only to Son.