Key events
Nathan Cleary missed State of Origin, sat out large chunks of the season, and has had to play through pain all year, but the game’s greatest modern player will still be the most crucial participant tonight.
The 26-year-old has played just 12 games this season, his lowest tally across nine seasons in the NRL. The knee injury he suffered in last season’s grand final affected his off season, and then a serious hamstring complaint meant he played just two games between rounds three and 20. His shoulder injury a month later kept him out for another three weeks, but he has returned and managed it during the finals.
Yet Cleary’s left shoulder remains one of the grand final’s major talking points. He was taken off in the final minutes in the preliminary final against Cronulla after appearing to aggravate it in a tackle, and respected NRL injury analyst Brian Seeney has described the problem – which makes a recurrence more likely – as a “ticking timebomb”.
Looking at those two powerful line-ups, here’s where Angus Fontaine sees the game being won and lost. The Cameron Munster v Liam Martin sideshow promises to be particularly interesting.
Munster said this week that he and Martin “didn’t like each other” even when they were teammates for Australia. “I thought we were fine, but obviously that’s not the case,” Martin responded. “If he feels like that, then that’s his problem. It won’t change anything on Sunday.”
The toss has just been made and the Panthers will kick off. Hopefully Tui Kamikamica or Eliesa Katoa walk away from that first collision unscathed.
Penrith Panthers XIII
Ivan Cleary’s starting 13 is his best available, but Brad Schneider’s presence on the bench is testament Nathan Cleary will not start at 100% fitness following a recurrence of his shoulder injury last week. Scott Sorensen has been passed fit to start following a late fitness test. Matt Eisenhuth is the unlucky 18th man.
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 19. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
14. Brad Schneider 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 11. Luke Garner
Reserve: 17. Matt Eisenhuth
Melbourne Storm XIII
Craig Bellamy can call on 16 of his preferred 17 squad members this evening, but the man missing out is a big loss – literally, and metaphorically – with Nelson Asofa-Solomona suspended for his hit on Lindsay Collins in the opening minute of the preliminary final. We’ve seen the imposing Panthers pack strongarm sides in big finals, and it will be up to Lazarus Vaalepu to withstand that heat in only his seventh first grade appearance. The Penrith-born prop only debuted in round 20.
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero
14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Lazarus Vaalepu 17. Alec MacDonald.
Reserve: 18. Grant Anderson
As fans take their seats, the Olympic Stadium is playing host to a tribute to this year’s retirees. Among them, Dale Finucane, Shaun Johnson, and Wade Graham.
As the nominal away side, Penrith will be in their iconic pink change jersey.
As the home team, Melbourne will run out this evening in their traditional navy and purple with lightning accents.
Jack Snape sets the scene for a grand final that could determine just whose era this really is.
Four years ago the Storm won the only grand final between the pair, watched by half a stadium due to Covid, but only narrowly. The Panthers’ roaring 20-point comeback left them just short, and they departed Homebush with all the momentum but without a trophy. They would sustain the excellence of that second half for three years, their run of premierships securing them the loftiest status in the sport.
But their dynasty will not look the same if Melbourne win on Sunday. The Panthers would leave this half decade of grand final appearances three from five, but with two losses to the Storm. The murmurs would be immediate: perhaps this is just as much Melbourne’s era as it is Penrith’s.
Indeed, the Storm were minor premiers in 2021 before the Panthers narrowly beat them in the preliminary final. They were on top of the table in 2022 until injuries curtailed their season which ended with three straight losses. The Panthers’ dominance over the Storm last year, culminating in a preliminary final walloping, has been a key part of Melbourne’s motivation this year: the impact of the 2020 grand final, but in reverse.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers in the 2024 NRL grand final. Kick-off at Accor Stadium in Sydney is 7:30pm.
Seven months after Daly Cherry-Evans hoisted the season into life in Las Vegas, the two best sides in professional rugby league have made themselves known. And it’s hardly a surprise.
The Broncos imploded, the Sharks found their ceiling, and the Roosters were undone by late-season injuries, but throughout, this pair of modern day titans always looked set to collide on the biggest day on the NRL calendar.
A fifth grand final appearance in a row might make Penrith’s presence appear foregone, but this was a season that showcased the resilience, as much as the brilliance, of the mountain men. At no point in 2024 did the three-time defending premiers top the ladder, the product of a slow start, a challenging Origin period, and the loss of inspirational halfback Nathan Cleary for long spells.
Many other outfits would have found all this too much and used the opportunity to reflect on former glories. Not this group. Instead they crafted a “last dance” narrative around the end-of-season departures of James Fisher-Harris, Sunia Turuva, and Jarome Luai, with the latter instrumental in keeping the Panthers afloat during Cleary’s absence.
It’s foolish to question the future of a side about to appear in a fifth consecutive premiership decider, but losing such a crucial trio, after already losing a host of stars from that initial 2020 grand final, means Penrith will start next season as vulnerable as they have in many years. History may well regard this evening as one last hurrah for Ivan Cleary’s masterpiece.
Standing in the way of a four-peat is the Melbourne Storm machine. Craig Bellamy and the most efficient organisation in rugby league have done it again.
But this season, more than any other in this seemingly endless story of 21st century success, has not been about the showstoppers. Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen have shown flashes of brilliance, and Harry Grant has been industrious, but it’s been a season built on the work of men in lower salary brackets: the indefatigable Trent Loiero and Josh King, the understated Nick Meaney and Tyran Wishart, and breakout stars Eliesa Katoa and Will Warbrick.
Knitting it all together has been Jahrome Hughes, the walk-up Dally M Medallist, who has enjoyed a season of consistency, leadership, bravery, and an unerring ability to rise to the big occasion. It seems inevitable a halfback will win today’s Clive Churchill medal and the outcome of Hughes v Cleary will be decisive in determining the 2024 premiers.
I’ll be back with squads and more shortly. If you’d like to get in touch while I’m on, please fire all communication to jonathan.howcroft.casual@theguardian.com.
