Disney’s Moana 2 is projected to be a massive hit at the box office, as it’s poised to break the all time Thanksgiving weekend record. Domestically, the highly anticipated animated sequel is estimated to earn somewhere between $125-135 million domestically over the extended five-day frame. The high end of that range would eclipse the mark held by Frozen II, which grossed $125 million at Thanksgiving back in 2019.
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These figures come courtesy of Deadline, who says Moana 2 is on track to make over $225 million globally when it opens. The sequel is projected to be a bigger hit than its acclaimed 2016 predecessor; the original Moana opened with $82 million domestically en route to a $248.7 million haul in the U.S.
Moana 2 will be another injection of life into the fall box office, coming hot on the heels of “Glicked” — the dual releases of Gladiator II and Wicked. While Wicked won last weekend handily (grossing $112.5 million to Gladiator II‘s $55 million), both titles performed well, giving theaters a much-needed lift. The fall had been somewhat underwhelming up to that point, with the likes of Joker: Folie á Deux and Red One not leaving much of a mark. Even Venom: The Last Dance, the follow-up to two commercial hits, became the lowest-grossing installment of its franchise.
[Related: All of the Box Office Records Wicked Has Broken (So Far)]
Disney’s marketing machine is in full force drumming up hype for Moana 2. Trailers and TV spots have highlighted everything from the thrilling action to catchy new songs on the soundtrack, painting the film as a must-see during the holiday season. The Mouse House has even partnered with Minecraft to build excitement for the movie, releasing Moana 2 DLC for the popular game.
With Moana 2 set to take the top spot this weekend, it will be interesting to see how its arrival impacts the holdovers. Disney’s latest will be in direct competition with Wicked, which is another PG-rated musical offering. Wicked isn’t about to go tumbling down the charts, but it’s conceivable Moana 2 will take a decent chunk of its target audience. Notably, Moana 2‘s shorter runtime gives it an advantage, as that will likely make it the more appealing option for families with small children. Gladiator II shouldn’t be affected too much since it’s an R-rated action movie. Ridley Scott’s latest serves as counterprogramming for older moviegoers. That should help it maintain decent legs, a necessity given its sizable production budget.
After fending off some high-profile holdovers, Moana 2 should enjoy an extended run at the top of the charts. The next film targeting the family demographic this holiday season is Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which doesn’t open until December 20th. There isn’t much between now and then that could plausibly dethrone Moana 2, especially with Kraven the Hunter projected to be a box office disappointment. Disney’s latest should easily be one of 2024’s highest grossing titles by the time its theatrical run is done.
