Classic NRL grand final in the offing as history beckons for Panthers and Storm | NRL

Penrith wear the title of modern rugby league’s greatest, a crown fitted by the past three premierships and forged in the defeat to the Storm in the 2020 decider. But in Melbourne’s return to the first weekend in October, Penrith’s dynasty faces its one true challenger. Melbourne started it, and so it is apt that Melbourne can end it.

Four years ago the Storm won the only grand final between the pair, watched by half a stadium due to Covid, but only narrowly. The Panthers’ roaring 20-point comeback left them just short, and they departed Homebush with all the momentum but without a trophy. They would sustain the excellence of that second half for three years, their run of premierships securing them the loftiest status in the sport.

But their dynasty will not look the same if Melbourne win on Sunday. The Panthers would leave this half decade of grand final appearances three from five, but with two losses to the Storm. The murmurs would be immediate: perhaps this is just as much Melbourne’s era as it is Penrith’s.

Indeed, the Storm were minor premiers in 2021 before the Panthers narrowly beat them in the preliminary final. They were on top of the table in 2022 until injuries curtailed their season which ended with three straight losses. The Panthers’ dominance over the Storm last year, culminating in a preliminary final walloping, has been a key part of Melbourne’s motivation this year: the impact of the 2020 grand final, but in reverse.

In an alternative universe, where the Panthers weren’t playing the Storm on Sunday, a defeat would not lessen the glory of Penrith’s great three-peat. But a Melbourne win warrants a recalibration of recent history.

That’s the beauty of the 2024 grand final: just when Penrith have seemingly proven everything, they need to go and prove themselves again. And so, remarkably, the team some say is the greatest ever enters the match on Sunday as the narrow underdog.

The reason is turnover, as the club’s success makes it impossible to keep elite performers under the salary cap. The Panthers have already lost the likes of Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau and Api Koroisau, all major contributors who have moved clubs for more money and opportunity, but have kept winning. They will lose three more – five-eighth Jarome Luai, prop James Fisher-Harris and winger Sunia Turuva – after the game on Sunday. This season has been branded “the last ride” by players and fans.

“We’d love to keep everyone together, but you can’t be that naive to think that it’s going to happen,” fullback Dylan Edwards said. “You can’t blame anyone for going to get more money.”

Luai – who is moving to Wests for more than $1m per season – and Fisher-Harris – who is choosing to return to New Zealand for family reasons – have been there from the start. Co-captain Isaah Yeo said they have been “cultural architects” for the club’s success and playing one more match together will be “special”, more so if they win. “You can reminisce a little bit easier,” he said.

Fisher-Harris is the side’s quiet enforcer. Luai joked during the week the New Zealander has always been his bodyguard. Co-captain Nathan Cleary went further, saying he’s been everyone’s bodyguard, and the club won’t fully appreciate his loss until next year. “It will be hard to take in until we get here next pre-season, and people like him and Romy [Luai] and Tito [Turuva] aren’t around. But for the moment, it’s just trying to make the most of these moments that are ahead of us.”

Cleary himself has had a season interrupted by hamstring and shoulder injuries. The latter will need surgery in the off-season, and caused him discomfort in the preliminary final. Melbourne have publicly said they would not overtly target him, but in attack and defence the Panthers’ playmaker – who almost single-handedly won last year’s grand final – will be physically tested.

His opposite number is Jahrome Hughes, the newly crowned Dally M player of the year, who described Cleary as the best player in the world this week. But no-one has been as effective as the Storm’s No 7 this season, part of the team’s brilliant spine of captain and hooker Harry Grant, five-eighth Cam Munster and fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen, who has returned this year from a series of injuries close to his best.

The minor premiers will be without their marauding middle, Nelson Asofa-Solomon, who is suspended for a high tackle in the preliminary final. Coach Craig Bellamy confirmed on Saturday Lazarus Vaalepu – just six games into his NRL career – would move onto the bench.

Right-sided backrower Eli Katoa was named in the Dally M team of the year, and is one of the Storm’s biggest threats. “I couldn’t imagine there’s been a better buy in the competition than what he’s done for us this year,” Bellamy said. His connection with Hughes was underlined by Katoa performing the haka for his halfback alongside teammate Will Warbrick and Canberra’s Joe Tapine at the Dally M awards.

In addition to centre Nick Meaney and the swarming Papenhuyzen, Hughes and Katoa have made the Storm’s right fearsome, their 59 tries there easily the most in the competition according to Stats Insider. But Penrith’s left has conceded the fewest four-pointers, making the duel on that side of the field a compelling substory.

But the main narrative on Sunday is Penrith. If their three-peat last year was barely believable, a win here – against the most worthy of challengers – would be their greatest victory. The last ride, given a fitting climax.