Constitution Hill had been the automatic Champion Hurdle favourite ever since his brilliant success in the Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2022 when he was scratched from this year’s race a week ago, and the feature event on Tuesday’s card at Cheltenham inevitably feels a little sub-par without him.
The mantle of odds-on favourite has passed, equally predictably, to Willie Mullins’s State Man, who suffered his only defeat when completing as the nine-length runner-up behind Constitution Hill 12 months ago.
He is without doubt the likeliest beneficiary of Constitution Hill’s absence, but a best price of 4-11 suggests that he is as far in front of his seven opponents as last year’s winner would have been in front of him, and there is a fair argument that that is not the case.
Iberico Lord, who was supplemented by Nicky Henderson when it became clear that Constitution Hill was out, is young and improving but still has plenty to find on ratings. Gordon Elliott’s Irish Point (3.30), though, is similarly progressive, has two Grade One wins to his name already and is just 4lb behind State Man on Timeform’s ratings.
Both those wins were at longer trips, and Irish Point would have been running in Thursday’s Stayers’ Hurdle had the Champion route not opened up last week.
The six-year-old successfully gave 13lb to a very useful opponent over the minimum trip in November, however, and the expected soft ground will also play to his strengths. At around 6-1 in a race where the bookies are paying three places, he could prove to be one of the best each-way bets of the week.
Cheltenham 1.30 Despite sending Ballyburn to tomorrow’s opener, Willie Mullins still fields the likely first- and second-favourites in Tullyhill and Mystical Power. On ratings and the clock, though, neither has an obviously superior chance to Slade Steel, who finished seven lengths behind Ballyburn last time and makes more appeal at likely odds of around 5-1.
Cheltenham 2.10 Another strong hand for the Mullins yard and while Gaelic Warrior, the likely favourite, has a few questions to answer, Hunters Yarn has an obvious chance if he can build on January’s easy win at Fairyhouse.
Cheltenham 2.50 A handicap that has eluded the Irish team since 2006 and Kim Bailey’s Trelawne, with Harry Cobden booked to ride, could extend the sequence.
Cheltenham 4.10 Lossiemouth would have been a solid second-favourite for the Champion Hurdle and though the step up in trip is a slight question mark, she is very difficult to oppose.
Cheltenham 4.50 It would buck most of the trends, including Ireland’s current six-year winning streak, but Syd Hosie’s Latin Verse could be worth an interest here. His latest success, by 19 lengths on handicap debut, was backed up by the clock and while bigger prices have dried up, even the current 14-1 looks fair.
Cheltenham 5.30 If he is forgiven his latest run over hurdles in the US, Salvador Ziggy must have a better chance than odds of around 11-2 imply.
